THEMA

Augustin TAPSOBA - TOULOUSE SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

cmoncelon — 2023-11-29T07:47:00Z

" Polygyny and the Economic Determinants of Family Formation Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa "

- Séminaire Analyse Economique, Econométrie et Finance (AEEF)

Amrita KULKA - WARWICK UNIVERSITY

cmoncelon — 2023-11-10T07:40:00Z

"Agglomeration over the Long Run : Evidence from County Seat Wars"

- Séminaire Analyse Economique, Econométrie et Finance (AEEF)

José VASQUEZ -LSE

cmoncelon — 2023-10-16T14:05:00Z

"The Gains from Foreign Multinationals in an Economy with Distortions"

Abstract : We study the local and aggregate welfare effects of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) in an economy with wedge-like distortions. We start with a guiding general equilibrium (GE) framework that highlights the ex-ante ambiguous role distortions can play in amplifying or attenuating the welfare effects of foreign MNEs, and the primitives needed to take the theory to the data. For our empirical application in Mexico, we track the size of four sectors of the economy — domestically-owned establishments (split into formal or informal) and foreign MNEs (split into maquila and non-maquila) — across time (1994 to 2019) and commuting zones (CZs). We also construct direct measures of initial wedges and distortions such as crime, labor taxes, subsidies, and credit constraints (varying across establishment types and CZs). We show that Mexico faces substantial distortions that can generate resource misallocation within and across CZs. Then, using an instrumental variable strategy, we find that increases in foreign MNE employment lead to expansions of the local domestic economy. This effect is mainly driven by formal domestic sector growth. Moreover, foreign MNEs in the maquila program have weaker positive effects on the domestic economy than non-maquila MNEs. Finally, we use the reduced-form estimates and the microdata to calibrate the model and quantify the GE effects. We simulate a 10\% MNE productivity shock and find that the expansion of MNEs in Mexico between 1994 and 2019 led to an aggregate 6\% welfare gain. A quarter of this gain comes from reallocation effects in the presence of distortions, while a fifth comes from productivity spillovers from foreign MNEs to the local domestic sector.

Geert VAN MOER - HANKEN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

cmoncelon — 2023-10-12T13:28:00Z

" Horizontal agreements about the use of a natural resource "

- Séminaire Analyse Economique, Econométrie et Finance (AEEF)

Pamela GIUSTINELLI - BOCCONI UNIVERSITY

cmoncelon — 2023-10-04T06:55:00Z

"The Coherence Side of Rationality : Rules of thumb, narrow bracketing, and managerial incoherence in corporate forecasts"
joint with Stefano Rossi (Bocconi).

ABSTRACT : We present theory and evidence on the coherence of multidimensional forecasts by firms. In our normative model, internal forecasts of output and inputs coherently incorporate the technology and budget relationships linking those variables. In our positive model, incoherence may arise from 'narrow thinking'---intra-personal frictions in coordinating forecasts across variables---via the use of suboptimal forecasting heuristics. We use our theory to evaluate the rules of thumb managerial textbooks propose to help firms make internal forecasts, to develop tests of forecast coherence, and to distinguish coherence from accuracy. Our theory yields a partial ranking of rules of thumb and testable predictions linking forecast incoherence, rule-of-thumb use, and firm performance. Using the Duke Survey of top US executives, we find : (i) heterogeneous use of rules ; (ii) negative associations of firm performance with forecast incoherence and with use of suboptimal rules ; (iii) about one-half of CFOs making incoherent output-input growth forecasts.

Dongsoo SHIN - SANTA CLARA UNIVERSITY

cmoncelon — 2023-09-05T06:48:00Z

" Gaining Control by Losing Control "

- Séminaire Analyse Economique, Econométrie et Finance (AEEF)

Stephane GAUTHIER - PARIS 1

cmoncelon — 2023-09-01T14:45:00Z

" Random redistribution and discrimination "

Abstract :
We examine optimal random nonlinear income taxation in a Mirrlees economy with a continuum of risk-averse agents whose utility
functions are quasilinear in labor. Bunching in the deterministic optimum is necessary for socially bene\u000Ccial random redistribution. In a
parametric example featuring a Rawlsian redistribution motive, redis-
tribution through lotteries dominates the optimal deterministic policy.
Fiscal discrimination that is unattainable in the deterministic case due
to bunching becomes feasible in the stochastic case. Useful random-
ization operates through a reversal of incentives from a downward
incentive pattern in the deterministic case to an upward pattern in
the stochastic case, aligning incentives with the redistribution motive.

Andrea BASSANINI - OECD

cmoncelon — 2023-08-23T14:40:00Z

« Labour market concentration, wages and job security in Europe »

- Séminaire Analyse Economique, Econométrie et Finance (AEEF)

Anne BRENOE - UNIVERSITY OF ZURICK

cmoncelon — 2023-07-17T14:21:49Z

" Math Skills, Perceptions of Fit, and Occupational Choice "

The abstract is : We study how beliefs about math skills and fit affect occupational choice among Swiss students who are about to apply to apprenticeships. Although there is no gender difference in math skills, we document a substantial gender gap in preferences and search for math-intensive apprenticeships. We conduct a field experiment that randomizes the provision of gender-specific information on math ability and fit in gender-incongruent occupations. The intervention increases both boys' and girls' perceptions of fit in gender-incongruent occupations by 0.09-0.16 standard deviations. Furthermore, it increases boys' (girls') probability of searching for information about any gender-incongruent occupation over the following two weeks by 46 (34) percent and leads to an increase in their plans to apply for trial apprenticeships and/or apprenticeships in these occupations. Thus, the intervention broadens both boys' and girls' occupational search in the medium run. Later this year, we will link our survey data to administrative data from the largest apprenticeship application website to evaluate whether the intervention has effects on occupational choice.

Matteo FIORINI - OECD

cmoncelon — 2023-06-23T08:45:00Z

" International financial openness and manufacturing productivity : A services trade perspective. With Bernard Hoekman and Dennis Quinn "

- Séminaire Analyse Economique, Econométrie et Finance (AEEF)